Main author: Pedro Antonio Cárdenas Pérez
Summary: It embraces the variability of climate, associated with the occurrence of ENOS events, and it includes three remarkably important aspects. The first scientific contribution is the creation of a new ENOS occurrence’s empiric Index, which presents good properties for impact studies of this event and an important role in the forecast of climatic elements. This index showed better correlations than the South Oscillation Index and the Anomaly of Sea Surface's Temperature with the rain, extreme temperatures and atmospheric pressure in Cuba. Also, it was useful in order to make an objective chronology of ENOS and AENOS events. It is demonstrated the existence of ENOS and AENOS effects in different climatic elements in Cuba and it is quantified the magnitude of those impacts, differed by periods of the year. The demonstration of impact modulation of events by solar activity and Quasibiennal Oscillation, important forcing elements of climatic variability, certainly contributes to know this event and allows explaining apparent contradictions as for the appearance of anomalies of climatic elements under ENOS or AENOS conditions. It is also presented a nonlinear forecasting method, for ENOS Index (EI) which allows predicting the occurrence of events and their temporary evolution several months in advance and with a high ability, regarding that of similar ENOS forecast methods carried out in centers from developed countries.